Re: Managers
Re: Setting the lineup
“These differences are for the most part approximately 0.02 runs per plate appearance at most. Over the course of an entire season, or around 700 PA, that equates to 1.4 runs gained. Over the course of a season, with proper lineup optimization, a team has the chance to gain approximately 10 to 15 runs.”
-from “The Book”
Re: In Game decisions
“ In the essential 2006 book Baseball Between the Numbers, analyst James Click tried to tease some signs of managerial impact out of the statistical record but came up empty. After examining the measurable impact of in-game strategies (bunting, stolen bases, intentional walks), wins and losses relative to run differential, playing time distribution, in-game substitutions (pinch-hitters, relief pitchers, and defensive replacements), and direct impact on player performance (coaching), Click was unable to find evidence of a repeatable skill in any one of those five areas for any of the 456 managers he studied. That is to say that, much like clutch hitting, individual performances varied so much from season to season that the results appeared to be as much the result of chance as anything else.
…
It's interesting to note, however, that Click's 2006 study did make one relatively firm conclusion regarding the impact of certain in-game decisions. "Only six times in thirty-three years has any manager used sacrifice attempts, stolen base attempts, and intentional walks to increase his team's win expectation over an entire season. Even the best managers cost their team more than a game per season by employing these tactics. At worst they can cost a team three games per season." Over multiple seasons, no manager employed those tactics for a positive effect.“
Fun fact, James Click is now the Astros GM. Started as an intern at BP. Cool journey.