Number 4 is only better if there's a QB teams want to draft early this year.
If it's not, then maximum overall value and potentially future picks is the way to go.
Hell having Seattle's first round pick next year in the toughest division in football with Watson potentially missing a large chunk of the season and possibly being extremely rusty could easily turn into a top 10 maybe top 5 pick.
Plus Seattle could also offer up Denvers first next year.
If you need a QB and you don't see a guy you want this year, I'd rather stockpile picks for next years draft
You completely missed the point of what I was saying.
It’s a given any package for Watson will also include next years picks. The only team that could give up 3 1s right now in 2022 is Philly and as you said if I’m Houston I don’t want those picks because it can’t get me a QB
So we assume next years #1 is on the table as a guarantee to give Houston the best chance at a QB prospect next year.
If all deals are equal in future compensation and players etc, which deal is Houston taking? The one with pick 6 this year or the one with pick 9? The one with the higher pick. If Seattle (or Carolina for that matter) could get pick 4 from us and meet the rest of Houston’s demands then the team with pick 4 this year is who gets Watson. You can’t tell that guaranteeing Houston gets Thibs AND Hamilton at 3/4 isn’t very enticing for them.
I expect Watson goes for more than Wilson got. Which is why Seattle with 2 firsts next year is in the drivers seat. But Carolina is desperate. If they offer 5 firsts and a bunch of seconds, Seattle needs a trump card and a top 4 pick this year is better than Carolinas #6. That’s the pitch I’d be selling Seattle. Hell if they want Ashtyn Davis or Denzel Mims we can toss them on the pile as well