0 Members and 51 Guests are viewing this topic.
https://twitter.com/vote4robgill/status/1319308549533597696?s=21bye bitch
Every three days you're adding more new cases than we have had since this started. You have ten times our population and forty times the number of cases. Get your excrement together, I want to tailgate next year.
The New Jersey Devil keeps knocking over my trashcans at night and taking out credit cards in my name.
That population ratio might reduce by the time next year rolls around.Someone please tell me this vrirusus is all hype and then try and explain infectious diseases and pandemics to a doctor again. That was fun,
Obviously it's real and more serious than some, me included, thought in March or April. It's also not as serious as some would still have us believe. The conflation of the virus and the miserably poor response to it to varying degrees by the shithead populist governments around the world needs to stop. It's not a coincidence that the US, UK and Brazil are all at the top end of the leaderboard per capita.Johnson, Trump and Bolsanaro have all committed ideological genocide.
Thanks everyone for the encouragement. I'll keep posting new numbers and thoughts on the coronavirus when I can. But we're in a very disheartening situation.By the numbers, cases and hospitalizations continue to increase in CT at the same exponential rate over the last week: doubling about every 3-4 weeks. If anything, the pace appears to have *increased* in the past month, with statewide hospitalizations doubling every 2 weeks or so. The entire state would qualify as a "Red alert" town by DPH criteria. (https://www.ctpost.com/news/coronavirus/article/Lamont-COVID-infection-rate-reaches-4-1-percent-15678481.php) We're on pace to hit 900 cases/day (which translates into 25 daily cases/100k), on a 7-day average basis, in 2 weeks. It'll take another week for the 14-day average to go over 900, and then it'll be a political decision (whether statewide by the Gov, or local Boards of Ed) on when everyone closes. (Keep in mind that a two-week delay means another doubling, to 1800 cases/day.) But we're still on track for schools closing statewide by Thanksgiving, if not sooner.The curve also implies we'll have about 1200 patients in the hospital in 4 weeks. We peaked at 1972 back on April 22, and were down to 42 on August 17th. This could again cause the same strains we saw in the spring. But this time, we won't be able to hire staff from elsewhere (since the surge is nationwide), people won't (and shouldn't!) stop coming in for serious non-Covid problems, and hospitals can't afford to stop elective surgeries until the last possible moment.This will also cost lives. Deaths lag cases by about four weeks. More testing equals more cases diagnosed, and a lower case fatality rate. (Better treatments, and less hospital overload also help here.) If you take our "good case months" of June, July and August, and compare them to our "good death months" of July, August, and September, you get about a 1.6% case fatality rate. We had 5310 cases diagnosed in September, and 89 deaths so far in October, which is a 1.7% CFR. We're likely to finish October with around 15k cases, which implies about 250 deaths in November. That's if we're lucky and hospitals can keep providing the same quality care.I'm only talking about school closure because it's the only intervention with a hard number threshold from DPH. Ironically, K-12 schools (especially the elementary schools) do NOT seem to be a super spreader, and school closures, by itself, will likely NOT be enough to stop the spread in the community. The real value would be in sending a signal to people that things are serious again, and we need to be changing our behavior. And school closures by themselves didn't work in the spring in Italy, NYC, CT, or anywhere else, so my guess is cases would continue to rise and we'd be looking at a second lockdown at some point after that. Europe is there now: France and Italy are effectively rolling back to the equivalent of CT lockdown (manufacturing open, everything else closed), while Germany is rolling back to CT Phase 1 (retail and outdoor dining also open) -https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/germany-announces-new-covid-restrictions-france-braces-for-more-as-virus-surges-across-europe.html. They've waited too long, and we're not far behind them.We don't HAVE to close the schools, and we don't HAVE to have a second lockdown, if the Gov does something less drastic *now*. Off the top of my head, there's: 1) focused mandatory rollbacks to Phase 1 in certain cities or towns (like Hartford, Danbury, Norwich) - this is being done in NYC with success so far; 2) rollout of contact tracing app, voluntary at first, and then mandatory for entrance into an indoor business (very successful in China and South Korea, less successful in numerous European countries where it's voluntary); 3) expanded weekly mandated testing for high-risk establishments like indoor dining, gyms, school staff; 4) strengthening the travel advisory to require mandatory quarantine without a negative-test option (done in VT); 5) strong recommendation to avoid ALL out-of-state travel and family gatherings (NY and NJ). ANY of these, if instituted early (as in, within the next week), could help stem the spread and delay school closure and ultimately a second lockdown.But I don't think the Gov will do any of these in time. All of these could be unpopular, and he's shown to be a relatively lenient consensus-building-type guy throughout. (They did reinstitute weekly testing of NH staff and residents yesterday. https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/hc-news-coronavirus-nursing-homes-mandatory-testing-20201028-5xkbrpsntbb4re2nwcx4yhrhum-story.html)There's always hope, and I'll let you know the second I think these trends are turning. In the meantime, we can at least protect ourselves and our loved ones. Stay outdoors (coats, umbrellas), and don't let others in your house. Wear a mask in buildings other than your house, and outside near other people. Wash your hands. Please share this and spread the word.
My dad always says he's undefeated at tailgating
Maybe it's not I who doesn't know what he's talking about
https://twitter.com/nydailynews/status/1322582245685821440?s=21
Apparently Trump is threatening to fire Fauci after the election.
It should be treated as crowd pleasing rhetoric rather than a policy intention. Hillary is still a free woman not under any overt criminal investigation.
