Author Topic: Coronavirus SZN Forever  (Read 357661 times)

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Heismanberg

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1305 on: March 31, 2020, 07:19:02 PM »
the US will peak in about 2-4 weeks, extrapolating the charts. So do the math.

I think we're going to see the majority of the east coast peak in about two weeks.  California too, probably. 

I'm concerned about what's happening here in Texas and in the midwest.  It's slow right now and I think it will start to take off this weekend. 
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Heismanberg

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1306 on: March 31, 2020, 07:19:30 PM »
If we're lucky this will be over by Mid to late June and not because of the weather.

I really freaking hope so
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dcm1602

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1307 on: March 31, 2020, 07:19:41 PM »
I know it's serious but I don't think 250,000 deaths are going to happen looking at the numbers, maybe world wide.

If we're lucky this will be over by Mid to late June and not because of the weather.

I mean 240k is the more dire of the likely scenarios. But unless you're knowledgeable about exponential logarithms, progressions, and epidemiological morphology the statistics won't correlate until much later in the process. Since I don't understand and or made up most of those words. I'd equate it to more like a compounding 401k.

 Early on you're gonna see paltry numbers, and towards the end it'll be eye popping numbers. While I'm not smart enough to understand what the smart people are talking about. I know enough to believe them when they say it

dcm1602

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1308 on: March 31, 2020, 07:23:25 PM »
the US will peak in about 2-4 weeks, extrapolating the charts. So do the math.




Edit: By  over I don't mean puppies and rainbows, I mean signs of life, like getting back to things. Sorry that wasn't clear. I don't know when it will be safe to gather in crowds.

The smart people already did the math

While it's generally accurate that the peak for NY is expected to be towards the middle/end of April like you said. The currently calculated lull is expected to be sometimes later in August.

Miamipuck

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1309 on: March 31, 2020, 07:24:23 PM »
I think we're going to see the majority of the east coast peak in about two weeks.  California too, probably. 

I'm concerned about what's happening here in Texas and in the midwest.  It's slow right now and I think it will start to take off this weekend. 

I suppose its hope on my part more than anything concrete but people are now largely confined to their geographic area versus traveling all over the place. Plus there are more and more tests available every day. So hopefully, the measures in place  and heavy testing and quarantining positive testing people can stop the wholesale spread that NY has experienced. That's what's really worked in the country's that have been ahead of the curve.
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Miamipuck

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1310 on: March 31, 2020, 07:26:05 PM »
I really freaking hope so

I don't mean all over but maybe getting back to our lives, I hope so as well.
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Miamipuck

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1311 on: March 31, 2020, 07:26:44 PM »
The smart people already did the math

While it's generally accurate that the peak for NY is expected to be towards the middle/end of April like you said. The currently calculated lull is expected to be sometimes later in August.

You mean lull and this comes back around as a 2nd contagion?
<----Would you say Jetoffensive is a Flock, a Herd or a Gaggle of assholes? <-------- Would you like to know more!

Derek Smalls

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1312 on: March 31, 2020, 07:29:12 PM »
I mean 240k is the more dire of the likely scenarios. But unless you're knowledgeable about exponential logarithms, progressions, and epidemiological morphology the statistics won't correlate until much later in the process. Since I don't understand and or made up most of those words. I'd equate it to more like a compounding 401k.

 Early on you're gonna see paltry numbers, and towards the end it'll be eye popping numbers. While I'm not smart enough to understand what the smart people are talking about. I know enough to believe them when they say it
Well, the estimate was 100K-240K from the White House. This is the same White House that...
- Told us that it would be down to 0 cases and go away on its own
- Told us it paled in comparison to H1N1, which killed 12,500 in a year
- Told us 37,000 Americans died from the flu, and nobody cared, so we shouldn't care about this
- Said 100,000 dead would be a "good job"

The estimates are at 100K-240K if we maintain social distancing. The worst case scenario is 1.5M-2.2M if we don't do anything. Some states still aren't doing that much in terms of social distancing.

Hopefully, we can keep it under 100K. Fauci said that we want to do much better than that. But I don't know if that will be realistic given the leadership in charge.

dcm1602

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1313 on: March 31, 2020, 07:29:45 PM »
You mean lull ad this comes back around as a 2nd contagion?

Well I meant more that I haven't really read about what comes next (other than the massive depression). Though human behavior and government regulation will likely play a huge role in what does.

But seemingly August/September is the predicted time for this current mess to come down.

Once (even more) people start acting like assholes and flu season swings around again who the freak knows what will happen at that point

Derek Smalls

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1314 on: March 31, 2020, 07:31:28 PM »
I don't mean all over but maybe getting back to our lives, I hope so as well.
I hope so, too, but I'm more pessimistic.

I enjoy playing live poker in my free time. Not doing that anytime soon.
I love going to concerts. Not doing that anytime soon.
I love going to sporting events. Not doing that anytime soon.
I need a freaking haircut. Not getting that anytime soon.

We will eventually get a new, temporary normal, where some things will come back. And eventually, this could spark some great innovations that make the world a better, more efficient place in a year or two. But short term, I'm pessimistic.

dcm1602

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1315 on: March 31, 2020, 07:33:57 PM »
Well, the estimate was 100K-240K from the White House. This is the same White House that...
- Told us that it would be down to 0 cases and go away on its own
- Told us it paled in comparison to H1N1, which killed 12,500 in a year
- Told us 37,000 Americans died from the flu, and nobody cared, so we shouldn't care about this
- Said 100,000 dead would be a "good job"

The estimates are at 100K-240K if we maintain social distancing. The worst case scenario is 1.5M-2.2M if we don't do anything. Some states still aren't doing that much in terms of social distancing.

Hopefully, we can keep it under 100K. Fauci said that we want to do much better than that. But I don't know if that will be realistic given the leadership in charge.

I think Trumps more likely to lie/be ignorant on the lower end of the scale than the upper. They've made it fairly clear the economy was their priority. So saying hey at least 100k people are going to die isn't going to be doing the market favors.

But outside agencies have correlated those numbers so I do believe it. I believe i posted a few days ago about the bill gates foundation/university of Washington predicting around 85k deaths by August. So for things to have gotten slightly worse in a few days seems perfectly feasible.


Miamipuck

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1316 on: March 31, 2020, 07:40:11 PM »
I hope so, too, but I'm more pessimistic.

I enjoy playing live poker in my free time. Not doing that anytime soon.
I love going to concerts. Not doing that anytime soon.
I love going to sporting events. Not doing that anytime soon.
I need a freaking haircut. Not getting that anytime soon.

We will eventually get a new, temporary normal, where some things will come back. And eventually, this could spark some great innovations that make the world a better, more efficient place in a year or two. But short term, I'm pessimistic.

I have to talk you about poker, I used to do really well at it until I quit. I am not sure if I will play again but would love to talk strategy.....I just grew tired of sitting next to the players that play in South Florida. You should eventually travel there if you're a good player, they're brutal players there. You would clean up.

Of the 4 things you list, quite honestly the only one that has any hope of happening by my time frame is a haircut. That's what I really meant. I know it's depressing to hear and I am sure you know already.
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Miamipuck

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1317 on: March 31, 2020, 07:50:34 PM »
Well, the estimate was 100K-240K from the White House. This is the same White House that...
- Told us that it would be down to 0 cases and go away on its own
- Told us it paled in comparison to H1N1, which killed 12,500 in a year
- Told us 37,000 Americans died from the flu, and nobody cared, so we shouldn't care about this
- Said 100,000 dead would be a "good job"

The estimates are at 100K-240K if we maintain social distancing. The worst case scenario is 1.5M-2.2M if we don't do anything. Some states still aren't doing that much in terms of social distancing.

Hopefully, we can keep it under 100K. Fauci said that we want to do much better than that. But I don't know if that will be realistic given the leadership in charge.

The leadership in this country failed. Failed to get on top of this when they had a chance and failed during the first few weeks. They only got serious when it got serious. You can say they're still failing. I hope next time the team of the outgoing President wants to run doomsday virus scenarios with the incoming team to help them with crisis management and transition the new team pays attention.

 Of course it's not just the President that's been awful, where has the Mayor of the worst hit city in the entire world been? The Governor of Floriduh still hasn't shut down gatherings and such.

That's been the problem lately, poor leadership. Funny, I never thought much of their Presidency's, much at all, but Bush and Obama were much better leaders than what we have now. I don't think we would be this bad off if they were President and they weren't very good. I suppose the joke is on us.
<----Would you say Jetoffensive is a Flock, a Herd or a Gaggle of assholes? <-------- Would you like to know more!

Miamipuck

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1318 on: March 31, 2020, 08:13:22 PM »
<----Would you say Jetoffensive is a Flock, a Herd or a Gaggle of assholes? <-------- Would you like to know more!

guinness77

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Re: Coronavirus SZN Forever
« Reply #1319 on: March 31, 2020, 10:02:38 PM »
I’m pretty pessimistic about any estimate regarding deaths or a “return to normal” because we’re not doing what the other countries have done to stunt the growth of the virus. This “social distancing” is basically a half measure and we live in a country full of arrogant, pig headed, self-gratification needing, can’t accept the word no, assholes. I still have to go out in public for work and even though there’s been a drastic change in the amount of people out and about, there’s still way too many people going out and too many non-essential businesses still open which makes non-essential employees leave their houses to work and then the people I described above still feel some (insert whatever excuse they need) impulse to still shop there.

It’s never gonna go away this way. Well have to learn to live with this or this new normal will be the way life is going forward.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 10:04:11 PM by guinness77 »

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