Coronavirus SZN Forever

[mj2sexay]

Bolsanaro tested positive, let's hope it's a particularly virulent strain.

don't do that.

[SixFeetDeep]

BREAKING: Spain's health ministry says number of cases of coronavirus has risen to 4,209 with 120 dead, or 1,063 new cases and 53 new deaths since midnight

This should all blow over any minute now.

[CatoTheElder]

^Source?

[SixFeetDeep]

^Source?

https://twitter.com/ghoeberx/status/1238451667223351296?s=21

They reported their first case 10 days ago.

[SixFeetDeep]

More legit source:

Spain's prime minister says a state of emergency will come into effect there on Saturday amid a steep rise in coronavirus deaths.

Pedro Sánchez warned that very hard weeks lay ahead but he vowed the government would do everything necessary to combat the crisis.

Earlier, the number of deaths in Spain increased by some 50% in a day to reach 120. Infections jumped to 4,200.

Mr Sanchez said the figure could top 10,000 next week.

The state of emergency in Spain allows his government to take wide-ranging measures for up to 15 days, including:

limiting the movement of people or vehicles
ordering evacuations
prohibiting access to certain areas or places
intervening in areas of industry and farming
Controls are being introduced at an increasing number of borders in Europe, in response to the coronavirus.

-BBC

[Johnny English]

don't do that.

Hell yes. I'm filling my time building my list of people I most want to see getting this excrement. I warn you it's long.

[Johnny English]

https://twitter.com/ghoeberx/status/1238451667223351296?s=21

They reported their first case 10 days ago.

I think you have to look at all sorts of factors when analysis a particular country's infection and death rates, for there's no point comparing Spain to the UK because they're so wildly different in so many ways including industry, social interaction, propensity to travel etc. Big numbers in Spain don't mean "omigod it's really a deadly killer mutant space virus" any more than low numbers in Canada mean "it's really nothing more than a slightly more infectious cold". Context is everything.

[MBGreen]

Hell yes. I'm filling my time building my list of people I most want to see getting this excrement. I warn you it's long.

[SixFeetDeep]

Yes, exactly this. I have no idea how the US and its fucked up healthcare model will handle things. Thus far, knock on wood, Canada has implemented protocols created when we got hit hard by SARS and are handling things very well. We've got 80 cases total, every major city has separate testing and isolation facilities set up at least one main hospital. When I came back from vacation two months ago and the news from Wuhan was just breaking, there were already signs and testing processes in place at the airport for people coming in from high risk locations.

Italy was woefully unprepared and has an ageing population (third oldest in the world). Interestingly, Japan has an even older population and is handling it like a champ. I don't know what the difference is there.

This is a good resource for the latest data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Your link here says closed cases are at 7% deaths. Just a couple weeks ago everyone was being told the mortality rate is 2-3%. Maybe people don’t actually know what’s going to happen and should stop telling everyone they know the future.

[Johnny English]

Your link here says closed cases are at 7% deaths. Just a couple weeks ago everyone was being told the mortality rate is 2-3%. Maybe people don’t actually know what’s going to happen and should stop telling everyone they know the future.

Italy is at 45%. USA is at 57%. It's definitely going to kill us all!

Oh, wait. China, where it all started and has the largest sample size, is at 5% with new cases almost non-existent (22 added yesterday compared to a total so far in excess of 80,000). What's more, as has been repeatedly told to anyone who isn't stuffing their ears with toilet roll and running around screaming, is that there are undoubtedly huge numbers of people who have it or had it and either didn't notice or were so mildly symptomatic that they never bothered reporting. Or do they not count towards mortality rates?

[SixFeetDeep]

Italy is at 45%. USA is at 57%. It's definitely going to kill us all!

Oh, wait. China, where it all started and has the largest sample size, is at 5% with new cases almost non-existent (22 added yesterday compared to a total so far in excess of 80,000). What's more, as has been repeatedly told to anyone who isn't stuffing their ears with toilet roll and running around screaming, is that there are undoubtedly huge numbers of people who have it or had it and either didn't notice or were so mildly symptomatic that they never bothered reporting. Or do they not count towards mortality rates?

Don’t know what those numbers are in reference to and I don’t think I indicated anywhere that it will kill us all. I’ve stated numerous times that I think if it gets bad it will be because the healthcare facilities and supplies are overwhelmed.

[Johnny English]

Don’t know what those numbers are in reference to and I don’t think I indicated anywhere that it will kill us all. I’ve stated numerous times that I think if it gets bad it will be because the healthcare facilities and supplies are overwhelmed.

Deaths as a % of closed cases. I was just taking your weirdly cherrypicked statistic and showing it for other countries to demonstrate that it's a pretty useless number.

[SixFeetDeep]

Deaths as a % of closed cases. I was just taking your weirdly cherrypicked statistic and showing it for other countries to demonstrate that it's a pretty useless number.

How is it cherrypicked? I thought that’s total deaths out of total closed cases?

[MBGreen]

How is it cherrypicked? I thought that’s total deaths out of total closed cases?

you'll be eating cheese dust through a straw if you keep plodding along with this schtick.

[Johnny English]

How is it cherrypicked? I thought that’s total deaths out of total closed cases?

It's cherrypicked because it suits your argument that this is somehow worse than you were told previously, but it's useless because it doesn't have any of the context. In fact, the extra numbers I gave you seem to add some of that context - China is further down the road and has a lower mortality rate, the US is much earlier and has a much higher mortality rate. That would suggest that death is more likely early on, which would make sense in the context of those with underlying issues being more at risk. China's numbers are by far the most useful - their 5% mortality rate of closed reported cases will likely drop further once the ongoing cases are resolved, and then factoring in the unreported cases the original mortality predictions will be pretty much spot on.