I highly doubt Lawrence will be a top 3 QB in 2022. I'd be ecstatic if he was top 10.
Oh, I'm not saying that's the most likely outcome. But last year, Lamar Jackson won MVP in Year 2. In 2018, Patrick Mahomes won MVP in Year 2 (Year 1 as a starter). In 2017, Deshaun Watson was on an MVP pace before he got hurt as a rookie.
There's no reason Trevor Lawrence can't be a good quarterback in the NFL quickly. I certainly don't expect him to be the MVP in his 2nd season, but that is within his range of outcomes if we get the right coach and help around him.
Quarterbacks come in right away from college and put up big numbers now. We aren't used to it because we haven't had a top-5 scoring offense since the Bill Clinton era, but it could happen here, too.