Which Carr wouldn’t do… no reason to waive the NTC. Better to get cut, make the all the Raiders money, get to pick his destination AND get a second contract he is getting paid solid to strong QB money
Carr is a valuable asset to the Raiders, despite his performance being poor this season. He's a 31 year old QB who has been pretty good for most of his career. Unless the Raiders think they have a franchise QB on their roster, or they somehow end up in a position to draft one of the better QB prospects, it would be hard to just cut a talented 31 year old QB.
Sure his cap hit is going to be a little high, but what's the alternative? Either being forced to get a QB in the draft despite not having a top draft pick (currently set to pick 9th) or have to overpay someone in free agency.
I don't think it's impossible that the Raiders cut him, I just think if you're managing that franchise you do everything in your power to not cut him. After all look at the recent hauls for Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson.
And 40 millions year is a lot for him, but technically you could just cut him after 1 year (and with the dead money it would end up being a 40m 1 year rental) if it doesn't work out. That might be overpriced for how he's recently performed, but that's comparable to what Stafford/Prescott/Cousins are all making. Goff is also in that range
Whether the Raiders can play hardball (either forcing him to stay or waive his no trade) I have no freaking idea.
But I do think a conditional 3rd that becomes a 2nd if he's not cut after one year, is a very fair value for Carr with his contract. Especially since his contract isn't loaded with a billion dollars in guarantees that'll bury your franchise forever. Worst case scenario you'd get a 1 year rental and you'd lose a 3rd round pick and 40 million spread out over 23/24