I’m sure you can make some type of statistical correlation, but it’s a case by case basis. I’ll never forget what happened to Marshon Lattimore.
That's why I was removing the injury risk from the assessment.
My question might be more properly stated: if you're rated, say, 56th in the coming draft, how many spots would you need to jump in the following draft to make up for any money you don't make in the NFL while attending one more year of school?
The time value of money dictates that if you go back to school, even without injury, unless you make a jump in your draft-slot, you've lost money. The question I'd be curious about--again apart from injury risk--is how many slots I'd need to jump, and is that realistic for my talent vs. the competition?